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Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are
poised to be the future of the auto industry, according to a new report. Looking toward the future
of BEVs, the new report from Lux Research, “Electric Vehicle
Lightweighting 2030 ,” analyses the future of vehicle lightweighting and necessary BEV success factors over the next decade.
In the past, lightweighting – or purposely designing more lightweight cars specifically for fuel efficiency – has been a key tool for
improving the fuel economy of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
However, the transition from ICEs to BEVs changes both the goals and
the design considerations around lightweighting.
Anthony Schiavo, Senior Analyst at Lux, says, “BEVs are overwhelmingly more efficient than
ICE vehicles due to regenerative braking and more efficient motors and are increasingly outgrowing the issue of limited range. Materials
companies need to start planning for a fully mature BEV space.”
Lux predicts that battery pack energy densities will increase by roughly 15 per cent over the next decade. This increased energy density can be used to either extend the range of a vehicle by keeping battery size the same or
reduce cost by shrinking the size of the battery pack.
In its analysis, Lux modeled both scenarios and calculated a lightweighting benchmark. Lux determined that in order for lightweighting to be a
cost-effective solution against batteries by 2030, it will need to cost, on average, less than $5 per kilogram of weight saved.
“This benchmark is not the only thing guiding lightweighting
decisions,” cautions Schiavo. “To find adoption, materials companies
and manufacturers will need to find solutions that save on both weight
and cost.”
“We predict vehicle structure will be an opportunity for high-strength
steel and aluminum, as they provide weight reductions at minimal cost,” Schiavo continues. “Bumpers are expected to benefit from design advancements that utilize glass fiber, carbon fiber, and
thermoplastics. Other material priorities, such as sustainability,
durability, and end-of-life issues, however, will take priority over
lightweighting by 2030.”
Lux found that there’s far more risk of disruption from improving energy storage technologies – which
could substantially outstrip forecast improvements by 2030 – than
there is from novel innovations in materials.
